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Don't let a little thing like odds stop you

02 Feb 2010

Imagine relegating every important choice to probabilistically dominant outcomes? This decision architecture attempts to rigorously bake out every conditional factor and estimate it's impact on a particular choice. The intriguing aspect of this method, is that our mind already functions much like this on a tiny level.

The complicated network of neural connections can be broken down into massive clusters of linked neurons. Each synaptic event will trigger wave like propagation throughout responsive nodes. The pathways, feedback, and weighting all lead to macro decision events. Habit weighs heavily on our minds decision making ability, and serves as an autopilot or default response.

All of our minds available information is leveraged in a moment to make a decision which will determine our actions. For the greater part we are socially judged by the efficacy of our decisions and corresponding actions. The ultimate representation of this ideal is a true meritocracy. The realities of game theory dictate our current wealth distribution model, but without faith that direction and effort lead to earned rewards, the system would rapidly unravel. Any system which promotes a disconnect between motivation and value is doomed to collapse. I tried to come up with a fitness criteria for evolving economic models and their efficiency in evaluating individual contribution but gave up due to weariness. I promise to come back to this topic another time.

Risk versus Reward

What am I risking versus my probability of payout? How much confidence should we place on our estimate of success, and if we're wrong how much of an upside do we lose out on from missing a sweet deal. A trap of probability weighted decision systems is choosing a mediocre path. If every decision is dictated by consensus we are left with a moderate outcome which equally dissatisifies everyone :).

Reality Distortion Fields Influence Decisions

As an information hungry startup founder, I have encountered the phrase "reality distortion field" used by many investors and entrepreneurs (my first experience with the term was at Steve Blank's blog). I have come to respect this concept as it represents much more than charm, influence, or deception. Reality distortion can be leveraged on a space which is already out of alignment. Manifest enough social gravity, and you may shape the current landscape into a legendary beauty worthy of future awe and emulation.

Earn the trust of the right community, and you can literally change the world.

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